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October 17, 2005
Player 8.0 stats
Player 8.0 stats: Stephen Elop offered some stats during his keynote that I hadn't seen before... in the month since Macromedia Flash Player 8.0 went live for general public use, there have been over 100 million downloads. (To gauge the significance, Mozilla adoption has been significant, yet nowhere, nowhere near.) The Flash 8 audience is now growing by five million people a day (auto-update was turned on late last week). During today's keynote alone some 400,000 individuals will be adding this new engine to their computers. This high-media, high-interactivity, and very predictable local software service is spreading across the planet in an unprecedented fashion. The world's computers are being improved, right now, and rapidly. Very significant.
Posted by John Dowdell at October 17, 2005 11:08 AM
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I think you meant "in the month since Macromedia Flash Player 8.0 went live..." not 8.5.
Posted by: Ryan Guill at October 17, 2005 11:33 AM
Thanks, Ryan... got it corrected now.
Posted by: John Dowdell at October 17, 2005 11:47 AM
by the way, I meant to mention, those numbers are awesome!
Posted by: Ryan Guill at October 17, 2005 11:54 AM
V. impressive JD, thanks... any comparison vs. previous uptake rates - Flash 6, 7?
At this rate, at what point would we achieve 80% penetration?
Posted by: Jim at October 17, 2005 02:10 PM
"At this rate, at what point would we achieve 80% penetration?"
- good question. My wife asked me that the other day.
Posted by: barret at October 17, 2005 02:24 PM
Jim, I don't have any firm data yet... closest I've got is today's material, listed above.
Anecdotally I've heard that execs expect even faster super-majority reach this cycle, in part because each Player's adoption rate has been a bit faster than the one before, and in larger part because of the new auto-update mechanism. I've also heard that Macromedia site traffic has reached unprecedented traffic levels, but Studio 8 has been a big part of that too.
Today I saw the first graphs & stats of recent adoption rates, but I expect we'll see better info within a month or two.
In the meantime, if you're considering something like the new video codec or imaging abilities, then maybe watching your own current audience closely, and extrapolating from their adoption rates, might be the way to assist planning...?
(And Barret, y'know you leave me half-a-dozen ribald openings there, don't you...? ;-)
jd
Posted by: John Dowdell at October 17, 2005 02:43 PM
re: 80%... in the DevNet keynote coverage Kevin Lynch did repeat the "80% of general consumer audience within 12 months". (I'm not sure how close we can get on such estimates yet though, because the auto-update is the wildcard, and this has been live for just one week... may be a conservative estimate, hard to tell by this point.)
Posted by: John Dowdell at October 17, 2005 10:40 PM
Hi John!
I've been using Flash 8 extensively since it was made available, and it's great having these stats... as a matter of fact, it'd be great to have them in http://www.macromedia.com/software/player_census/flashplayer/version_penetration.html
(Can't wait to finish this quarter, so until then... any news about today's adoption rate will be great!!)
Cheers!
Posted by: Alexandre Madurell at December 4, 2005 06:30 PM