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December 31, 2005
Trends 2006
Trends 2006: Lots of weblog posts make specific predictions, but here are some general trends we can already see. For the 2006 Adobe Systems, execs have consistently said that the deal is "all about growth", so I'd expect a lot of news this year about high-growth areas like ubiquitous computing (mobiles, consumer devices, signage etc). The last two years have been particularly ripe for collaborative development, whether for code or content, so I'd expect interactivity to increase here too. The Apollo project was mentioned in a MAX presentation in 2005, so in 2006 there will be a lot more shaping of how SWF, PDF, and HTML/JS can work together, outside of the HTTP-refresh paradigm. Another strong trend for 2006 is the increasing globalization of development and use -- raises issues such as how local or global each project should be, the diversity of English skills in the project's audience and whether text should be minimized, improved cross-region collaboration, lots more. The trend of advanced pocket devices seems finally ready to break out of Japan and Korea and into EU and NA, and home televisions increasingly have memory and interactive displays, and stores and public places are increasingly wired too -- privacy & security have a lot more growing to do, and we need to nail the synching of data for occasional connectivity. The Adobe DNA has always been about techies using computers to create experiences for the public, whether delivered by paper or CD or HTTP or whatever -- with the explosion of growth in connected devices, and remote services, and global audiences, there's some important work ahead in figuring how to engage each audience with the type of experience they really want to have. Big changes ahead. :)
Posted by John Dowdell at December 31, 2005 08:57 AM
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Another trend: Websites start realizing the costs of third-party content. Here Doc Searls reflects on the whole AP/NSA cookies conversation (see debunking), notes prior info, and writes "Not much recent stuff on the subject. Does there need to be?" I suspect that in 2006 weblogs with many links to third-party content (ads, analytics, blogrolls, headlines, badges etc) will realize that these cross-site HTTP requests generate very attractive databases... attractive to marketers within the company, attractive to hackers outside the company. I trust the Spread Firefox site, for instance, but those image requests could be used to track visitors site-to-site, so the security of that data would be important. I'd guess that this subject would get more conversation sometime during 2006.
Posted by: John Dowdell at December 31, 2005 10:06 AM