« Why Flex Matters | Main | Gtalkr improvements »

February 01, 2006

Player adoption significance

Player adoption significance: Yesterday's news about Flash Player 8 adoption being 50% more explosive than even "the most pervasive software in internet history" (FP7) did not make headlines across the New York Times, as I would have expected. Two more aspects on this, though. One, it proves that Adobe can push innovation to the world's computers faster than anyone -- faster than Mozilla, faster than Microsoft, faster than Apple. (A pure server-based app like Google Maps can update its instructions on every visit, but it can't change the capabilities of the viewing browser itself.) "AJaX" can't match up in growth rate, even if everyone used only one browser brand -- OS adoption and browser adoption are bigger commitments, and are orders-of-magnitude slower than the little Flash plug-in. Kevin Lynch made a great point during the analyst meeting yesterday, and it bears repeating: The Adobe pace of innovation atop the world's computers is unmatched. (Yes, them's fighting words, at least to some out there, I'd wager... but these words are true! ;-) The second implication is for Flash Player 8.5 and ActionScript 3. The faster script processing in ActionScript 3 will require the 8.5 engine, now in developer beta, going to general public later this spring. I don't know how the demand produced by content sites will vary between the graphics-oriented FP8 and the logic-oriented FP8.5 -- advertisers and destination sites seem like they'd make use of live video compositing before they'd push for scripting improvements -- but the overall incendiary pace of consumer adoption means that a Flex 2 audience will always be bigger than a Vista audience, from day one. Yesterday's stats were indeed a highly significant event in computing, both for what they say about today, and imply about tomorrow. Now, let me get the editors of the New York Times on the phone, see what I can do to getting this more widely recognized.... ;-)

Posted by John Dowdell at February 1, 2006 04:18 PM

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://weblogs.macromedia.com/mtadmin/mt-tb.cgi/7037

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Player adoption significance:

» Unremarkable Innovation from The Life of Bryan
Yesterday John Dowdell posted about the significance of the latest Flash player adoption stats and how they simply continue to fail to make headlines. He then goes on to quote Kevin Lynch from a recent analyst meeting: “The Adobe pace of innovat... [Read More]

Tracked on February 2, 2006 11:25 AM

Comments

Plumbing stuff rarely makes the headlines unless there's lots of PR money driving it...

I do agree the number is a remarkable one. Here's hoping 8.5 goes in even faster.


-MB

Posted by: Mark Belanger at February 1, 2006 04:47 PM

I wonder if part of the 'lack of press' issue isn't the overall ubiquity of Flash. It's always there, reliable and predictable - unless it started crashing, had a major security flaw or some other press-friendly negative I doubt the media would even care.

Also, once installed Flash is largely out-of-sight, out-of-mind - average users tend to have no idea what is Flash and what is HTML/CSS/Ajax/etc on the web.

Maybe you just need to 'sex it up' a bit... ;-)

Posted by: Bryan Rieger at February 1, 2006 05:19 PM

woo JD! Sounds like you've been drinking some Koolaid over there.

All kidding aside, I think part of the rapid adoption of FLP 8 can be attributed to these two words: Flash Video.

Once you see how easy it is to incorporate video into a format that is (reliably) cross-browser/cross-platform with a sweet progressive download--and how easy it is to publish using all the tools available-- (Dreamweaver, Flash, Breeze, et al.) it's not long before you're reaching for the Koolaid yourself.

Posted by: Kim C. at February 1, 2006 05:40 PM

Oh, *that's* what it was... I thought it strange that I hadn't seen tropical-colored Anchor Steam before.... ;-)

Bryan, agreed, there's not always a merchandisable story in plain facts... you have more ideas on this...?

Posted by: John Dowdell at February 1, 2006 07:16 PM

Between the video capabilities, other new stuff, and the fact that I no longer have to create and import basic image effects from heavy external bitmaps, it was a clear decision to move all development towards the 8 player.

I don't like the dot 5 release for a full player release, not sure why but it just sounds funky. But hey, it's awesome. And though the development around 8.5 may have been directed towards logic and speed, that ends up meaning a lot for the graphics side too.

Posted by: Chris Simmons at February 1, 2006 08:32 PM

Player 8 is great.
Huge video quality boost, nice effects, still tiny in size. It seems that the more it pleases the designers the faster the public jumps on.
Interesting. I'm a programmer.
So 8.5 will be slower. People go for the eye candy always. Not interested in what's under the hood. The public not knowing. That's an interesting idea. Because unlike java or director, flash does not have a splash screen. So if the user gets it installed after that he has no idea that he's so lucky actually. In Firefox the rightClick doesn't even work.
Will FP8 auto update itself to 8.5?
I think it should. The users want it to autoupdate. Until that we play with ExpressInstall.

Posted by: cosmin at February 2, 2006 12:13 AM

kudos on the adoption rate but "Adobe can push innovation to the world's computers faster than anyone" ???

Today's counterpoint to that is we may have to wait another year to get adobe software that works for intel macs.

yay adobe

Posted by: NIck Crowther at February 2, 2006 02:04 AM

Nick, "getting new capabilities installed on durn near each and every consumer machine" is a different task than "porting to new hardware in the middle of a product cycle when the OS is sprung on partners months early" -- a miraculous skill in one area does not imply mastery of all other miraculous skills, unfortunately.

Posted by: John Dowdell at February 2, 2006 07:12 AM

Adobe/Macromedia has never really had to sell Flash to consumers or enterprise markets - the stuff just works in the background. I think if you want the media and general public to take notice you have to do a little targeted branding, beyond developers and focus on the various messages.

Consumers
- Flash drives most of the games, audio/video and applications they use everyday on the web
- Flash (might) drive the media and applications they care about on their devices.
- It allows them to play soduko online over lunch, meet virtually with their remote offices and powers the user end of their businesses health management application.

Enterprise
- produce better products/services AND lower development/deployment costs
- loyal, passionate and growing developer base

Developers
- Ease of development/deployment
- an 'open' (file format) industry standard
- delivers what Java only promised on the client
- deliver a richer product/service to more users, basically you get RICH + REACH.

Also, on the consumer end. It might be an idea to provide a means for consumers to interact with Flash outside of the browser. How could they save/download games, movies, animations, etc to their hard drives - much the way they do with MPEG, DIVX, JPEG and EXE's today? Having SWFs and FLVs as constant companions on your desktop - right next to PDFs, DOCs and MP3s would sure go a long way towards making Flash visible (and more important) to average consumers.

BTW - the 'desktop Flash media' thing is what I wanted to talk to you about. Haven't had time to blog it, or fully think it out yet - but for us moving forward delivering 'content' in convenient, SWF packages that could be played in a desktop (or mobile) player (without security warnings, etc) would serve a very big need for our market.

Posted by: Bryan Rieger at February 2, 2006 07:27 AM

Being adopted for use to play movies and scripts is one thing, but if Google or other search engines can't find your site because it can't look inside the Flash files, your site will be as deserted as a ghost town.

"Don't believe the hype, it's the sequel!" - Snap

[jd sez: ... and for commenting here without knowing about "'contrary evidence' filetype:swf", you now owe me a pint of Newcastle, O Nameless One.... ;-) ]

Posted by: Paul at May 1, 2007 06:42 PM