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November 29, 2006
Bar talk
Bar talk: The link goes to Guy Kawasaki, whose first paragraph has the nut: "If you want additional proof that we're in a bubble, here it is: young people are trying to get into the venture capital business again. I get several emails a week along these lines..." (The rest is about testing your suitability to be a Venture Capitalist; four screens' worth on my display.) But I've been seeing strange changes lately too, in San Francisco... I often stop at a bar after work, to do language study over a pint, and there's been a perceptible increase in the number of loud tech-biz groups lately. Usually the senior member talks the most, and the rest listen or do aizuchi -- visibly hierarchical, not much real info-sharing. There often seems to be an undercurrent of tension in these groups, people getting on home at first opportunity. On the street, in the bus, it seems similar to the vibe before the initial weeding-out of WWW businesses a few years back, or the loud speaking which occurred when having a mobile phone was a novelty. Advertising provides real revenue now, but advertising is brittle, and any lack of progress could tighten business funding. I'm in it for the long haul, for improving the world's communicational infrastructure, but I've definitely been noticing strangeness the last few months, here in San Francisco.
Posted by JohnDowdell at November 29, 2006 06:46 PM
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Comments
How do you think Adobe's 100 million dollar Apollo fund will influence the startup space in the next few years? It seems like a lot but when I really think about it it's only enough to employ about 100 developers for a year - unless their working cheap for stock consideration.
Posted by: Oz at November 29, 2006 07:58 PM
Sorry, that one's out of my range, I don't feel capable of estimating such dynamics myself.
Posted by: John Dowdell at November 29, 2006 08:26 PM
One hundred million divided by one hundred thousand a year per developer would be one thousand developers, for one year. Say it takes a team of five to do an application - that would be 200 applications... might be enough to make an impact.
Posted by: Dave_Matthews at November 30, 2006 06:33 AM