JD on EP

Then again, those tactics do succeed in getting echo-chamber amplification on Techmeme. I've failed to get even the basics recognized ("No, yet-another-browser-plugin is not equivalent to a new beyond-the-browser desktop runtime"), so maybe they're right after all. Such techniques do get results, at least in the short term.

You're probably right, but these techniques are used by every company, Adobe included. Remember the 100,000 downloads of Apollo last year? [jd sez: No.] Anybody contemplated how many actually have been downloaded AND installed and NOT removed later? I reinstall my machine about 3-4 times a year, every time I download and install the Flash Player, does this add to 12 million players installed each day? [jd sez: Yes.] The problem I see with these numbers is when a company stops publish them as it creates the suspicion that the things aren’t going as planned: after two weeks being published I'm surprised that Adobe didn't shout how many downloads of Adobe AIR have been recorded... maybe the numbers aren’t that stellar? [jd sez: Wait.] And in case, who cares about the first week and the first month: if you sell a million phones in one week and then nothing for the rest of the year..... [jd sez: Study.]

Ted's "Flash Player 9 Installs" counter is at almost 4 billion now. That's awesome, but i wonder what he's counting there, given that there very much likely aren't anywhere near 4 billion internet users in this world?

You guys realize that you may have outpaced SETI and discovered extraterrestrial lifeforms here?

Claus, good point. I wasn't comfortable with Ted's counter myself, because there's no public documentation. But I know, from longtime internal conversation, that the "daily installations" number is measured by a ping to the Adobe servers when a new Player starts for the first time (no personal info). It's a measure of the complete process, right through to successful startup.

(Lots of those are updates, rather than virgin machines.)

Why saying that first shot of installations of any product should not be considered a trend is considered trolling? [jd sez: Because.]

Well, I downloaded the iPhone SDK and after 2G of download do you think I would skip installing it? And then (eventually) using it? At the moment the predominant limitation is not the absence of flash, but the fact that you app goes away when you switch to something else. That means you have a quite limited range of things you can put there, and although I'd rather develop for the iPhone in flash, and presume someday I'll be able to, the opportunity to sell into a market filled with people who will gladly pay $600 for a $400 device (maybe I should cross out 'will gladly pay' and substitute 'have paid' ) is not to be neglected.

I've commented Ted on his counter in the past. His reply was that he's counting downloads only. Pretty pointless if you ask me. On the other hand, it does result in a pretty impressive cool looking number.

I think Emanuele was getting Air and Flex mixed up.
"...with over 100,000 developers downloading the technology."
http://www.adobe.com/aboutadobe/pressroom/pressreleases/200610/102506Flex.html