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April 16, 2008
Silverlight tripling
Silverlight tripling: I hate giving Microsoft public-relations people extra exposure, but I spent enough time researching it that I figure others may want to know the meat behind the story too. The headlines go "Silverlight to triple marketshare" and such, but Katherine Noyes of E-Commerce Times has some of the details on that non-public Evans Data report: "In a poll of [400] developers who work with Web 2.0 technologies, Evans Data asked both what the developers currently use for rich Internet applications as well as what they plan to use in the next year to year and a half." From what's reported of the results, forty of them were investigating Silverlight today, and 120 of them plan to do so by 2010. No word on how many actual public-facing projects were under development. The fact that only a third seem to have responded to the prior massive publicity seems small to me, but you know my perspective. ;-) Anyway, it's a positive headline for Microsoft, even though it risks overestimating eventual realities. If I get a more direct link to the Evans Data study and wording I'll update this post.
Posted by JohnDowdell at April 16, 2008 02:52 PM
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"No word on how many actual public-facing projects were under development."
yeah, lets see results first, not R&D.
I opened the eyes of an IT solutions manager of a large insurance/banking/investment company yesterday - and got him worried about what his competition was doing (actual runs on the board)
all it took was a well timed article in a respected national newspaper he reads
http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,23283750-15306,00.html
backed up by a smooth and to-the-point demo of the software platform:
http://www.adobe.com/devnet/videos/apollo_demo07/index.html
it worked wonders to get the point across. more impact than some dodgy poll...
looking forward to your updating with more info of the Evans report, and your analysis of it all, JD.
Posted by: barry.b at April 16, 2008 03:52 PM
I am getting sooo tired of analysts predictions...
... for example after years of being told that XML and CSS was sooooo great and that it would allow you to target content for specific platforms I am still waiting for the elusive Mobile Internet on my 3 G phone. How many corporates have bought into the hype created by the likes of Microsoft and supported through questionable case studies.
Have you recently tried to access any web site on the web with Internet Explorer on your Windows Mobile 3G phone? Well I have and apart from a few notable exceptions like google the experience is pretty dismal. Until Apple came on the scene with their iPhone (please integrate Flash and release 3G iPhone sooner rather than later) the connected mobile market was an overhyped niche market in my opinion. I think any mobile operator who will offer the 3G iPhone on a reasonable data plan will see usage of their mobile data network explode.
I think Barry brings makes a good point. I wish IT managers and CEOs would listen a bit more to their internal "IT gurus" with an ear on the pulse rather than the overhyped rubbish development companies spread.
I feel like starting an independent vBlog similar to Walt Mossbergs consumer gadget blog but for the corporate world. Kind of like an independent voice looking impartially at new technology and it's value for the corporate customer.
... well for now I'll stop rambling here.
On a positive note, it's great to see old school companies like IBM looking at alternative technologies (such as the Mac) instead of blindly buying into the status quo.
Posted by: tom at April 16, 2008 06:48 PM
What is this random statistics week? You're associating 400 people (whom were polled randomly) and now discounting the growth potential based off this small sample? – yet again.
[jd sez: If you'll read carefully, you'll see I noted the sample size, but made no judgment on it. But now that you mention it, the ongoing Player audits do use a sample size ten times larger... those who think that an ongoing sample of 4500 cannot be accurate must really object to a onetime sample size of 400. Me, I'll accept each for what they are.]
jd, you’re [sic] lame attempts to downgrade Silverlight’s potential; and that’s what we are talking about at the end of the day, is coming off really weak. You appear to be unbiased, but your subtle approach to the subject clearly indicates you’re both afraid and annoyed at the success Microsoft appears to be having.
[jd sez: I object to the Silverlight hype. Once they ship their functional 1.0, then they'll have something to start talking about.]
Let it be, the more Adobe continues to try and convince the world Microsoft is going to fail, the more they succeed and in the end you all look like morons. Adobe has really great technology and if your team could spend less time looking over their shoulder at what Microsoft is doing and more on what you are doing, you may just beat monster that is Microsoft.
[jd sez: I don't care about "beating Microsoft". That's extraneous to my goals of making it easier for anyone, anywhere, to communicate and publish more effectively.]
Posted by: Phillip at April 17, 2008 01:07 AM
@Phillip
"You appear to be unbiased, but your subtle approach to the subject clearly indicates you’re both afraid and annoyed at the success Microsoft appears to be having."
that's a bit rough isn't it? Scott Barnes - Microsoft's newly anointed Silverlight/WPF product manager - was accused of exactly this over on the cfaussie forums on an acidic thread about CF and Adobe technology generally.
"if your team could spend less time looking over their shoulder at what Microsoft is doing"
so you didn't notice the first leg of the AIR train tour in Europe, just finishing? There's lots of Adobe staffers traveling around the world spreading the word or on the forums answering questions for users. JD's just providing some commentary. *I* didn't know about this report and IMHO it's something for me to take notice of.
At the end of the day ppl use what technology works best for them. Personally, I couldn't give a flying F*** if it's made by Red team or Blue - I don't have shares in either company, just a business to run.
Posted by: barry.b at April 17, 2008 05:59 AM
You object to the Silverlight hype? Why? Everytime Adobe rants and raves about a new product, I notice MXNA runs stupid with hype.
[jd sez: We've heard a lot about Silverlight and WPF/e and Sparkle for years, and they still haven't even produced a functional 1.0. The hype gets in the way of sound technical choices.]
Example: Photoshop Express, what the F**** was that and why the heck is it over-inflated. Same with AIR, I love Flex. I used it DAILY unlike some, but I scratch my head at what the hell that is going to do for us all.
I just wish Adobe would stop trying to denounce Microsoft (I can read SlashDot.org for that) that and screwing with events by telling organisers for conferences around the world that if Microsoft shows up, Adobe won't (Childish and bully tactics such as this are being noticed).
Grow up.. I subscribe to Adobe for my own reasons and pleasure. I don't need to be forcefeed Adobe propaganda, as that just insults my intelligence and makes things harder for me to justify to my .NET co-workers why I adopt.
For what it's worth, jd you did take a position on the subject in the way you crafted the message.
Barry, I read that thread and it has nothing to do with this? what is your point? Scott doesn't have blog posts on his blog ranting about Flash player statistics does he? he appears to know when to shut up and when to put a position forward, clearly jd has yet to learn.
So sick of this Adobe vs Microsoft war, both sides have equal screw ups and are no better than one another.
Posted by: Phillip at April 17, 2008 01:42 PM
"..and they still haven't even produced a functional 1.0. .."
This is exactly the crap I'm talking about. Silverlight 1.0 was released last year? Aren't they working on a 2.0 now?
If you're going to disassemble the competition, at least understand what they produce.
[jd sez: Phrase was "functional 1.0", not "nominal 1.0". See comments here.]
Flash is in version 9, and I'm still waiting on half the components that were promised year on year that are located in Flex. I state this, before you throw rocks at glass houses...
Posted by: Phillip at April 17, 2008 04:49 PM
With that I rest my case, keep that head buried deep within the sand jd.
Posted by: Phillip at April 18, 2008 05:34 AM
Fact of the matter is that when WPF/e was announced, it was with JavaScript support, so yes, 1.0 has been released.
[jd sez: Please do read the prior info first. The MIX06 announcements were for mini-CLR, and they cut features and lengthened schedules, Vista-ishly. It's in the public record.]
On a side note - what's that [sic] you inserted in Phillip's post? That's something you use when *quoting* someone, to make sure your readers understand that you yourself didn't make a typo. Now you're just coming across as a sullen, vengeful child. [jd sez: There's something unlikeable about many pro-MS people.]
If you truly want to reach out to the other side of the fence, rather than preaching to the choir, you need to revise your attitude.
Posted by: Jonas B at April 18, 2008 06:24 AM
At PDC05, plans for WPF/e with JavaScript support was announced. This was delivered with SL1.0. It was well known that the CLR version would come in a later installment. The CLR-based Alpha was released some 18 months after the MIX06 announcement.
[jd sez: It's true that JavaScript interactivity was announced at MIX06. It's also true that mini-CLR support was also announced at MIX06. This was yanked at 1.0 preview in Dec06, and at 1.0 release it was re-announced for the future 1.1/2.0 version. Once again, see the prior links provided here, or search to confirm.]
So, years of hype that gets in the way of sound technical choices..? Sure, if you mean that the only sound choice is going with Adobe.
I, for one, am happy about the announcements being made well in advance of the launch. With the 1.1 Alpha I started re-evaluating our RIA roadmap (which was formerly Flash/Flex only), and the 2.0 Beta has finally allowed me to make some (sound) decisions.
Posted by: Jonas B at April 18, 2008 12:39 PM
say what you want... I love Apple approach of not telling people at all what they are going to launch next... at least that way I don't start pushing my business towards a direction which might never eventuate.
Again, it seems to get more and more difficult these days to separate reality from hype. This is probably the main reason why most corporate software projects seem to over promise and under deliver. I am sooo not impressed.
Posted by: tom at April 20, 2008 06:53 PM